Louisiana
5-25-2 · 2-1 Sun Belt · ATS 5-1-1
5:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg
WIN PROB
67%
UL
Southern Miss
1-51-5 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- UL −10
- Open −11 · −110
- Total
- 52.5
- Open 52.5 · o −110
- Model line
- UL −7.4+2.6
- Model total 51.7
- Win probability
- 67%
- Projected score
- 29.5 – 22.2
- UL – USM
- Projected plays
- 135
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UL −10
- open −11
- Model
- −7.4+2.6
- UL
- Total
- 52.5
- model 51.7
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Louisiana runvs Southern Miss run Dvs USM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 42nd+0.04 | 118th+0.07 | 42 | UL +7.2 |
  Southern Miss runvs Louisiana run Dvs UL run D | 100th−0.04 | 20th−0.08 | 29 | UL +5.1 |
| Southern Miss passvs Louisiana pass Dvs UL pass D | 96th−0.06 | 84th+0.03 | 38 | UL +1.8 |
PaceUL 31.1 s · USM 29.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 135 | O 1.4 |
| Louisiana passvs Southern Miss pass Dvs USM pass D | 81st−0.04 | 100th+0.06 | 25 | UL +0.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UL +7.2
Louisiana's run game vs the Southern Miss run defense
Louisiana gains +0.11 EPA a play on the run (42nd); Southern Miss allows +0.14 (118th). About 42 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSouthern Miss
USM OFFWhen Southern Miss has the ball
DefenseLouisiana
UL DEF- 0.0098thEPA / play38th0.00
- 39.6%101stSuccess rate77th42.7%
- 1.2788thExplosiveness16th1.22
- +0.03100thRush EPA / play20th−0.01
- +0.0696thPass EPA / dropback84th+0.14
- 46.6%77thStandard downs SR69th47.2%
- 27.8%118thPassing downs SR95th32.2%
- 3.4830thLine yards44th2.89
- 11.9%39thHavoc rate69th14.4%
- 3.59114thPoints / opportunity62nd3.96
- 56%103rdRed zone TD rate89th65%
Louisiana's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (100th vs 20th).
OffenseLouisiana
UL OFFWhen Louisiana has the ball
DefenseSouthern Miss
USM DEF- +0.0287thEPA / play119th+0.16
- 40.1%92ndSuccess rate107th45.1%
- 1.25110thExplosiveness80th1.31
- +0.1142ndRush EPA / play118th+0.14
- +0.0881stPass EPA / dropback100th+0.17
- 45.5%94thStandard downs SR109th50.0%
- 31.0%71stPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 3.3051stLine yards106th3.33
- 11.4%28thHavoc rate125th11.5%
- 4.8930thPoints / opportunity74th4.09
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate55th57%
Louisiana's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (28th vs 125th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ULUL | USMUSM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.1 | 29.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.7 | 68.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 37.9% | 45.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −12.9% | −3.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 33.1% | 37.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:27 | 25:43 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.1 | Own 26.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
SUN BELT AVAILABILITY · WED 9:32 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- Out for seasonAlexander Spencer · OLBAlexander SpencerOLBSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-3——
- Out for seasonConor McPherson · LBConor McPhersonLB · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.2
- Out for seasonDarell Smith · RBDarell SmithRBSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, not listedT-3 → T-3· OFF LATEST——
- Out for seasonDarrell Smith · RBDarrell SmithRB · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.3
- Out for seasonHayden Darbonne · LBHayden DarbonneLB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- Out for seasonJeremiah Holts · DLJeremiah HoltsDLSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-3——
- OutBraylon Walker · CBBraylon WalkerCB · FRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- OutCollin Jacob · SCollin JacobS · SRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.3
- OutJ'Marion Gooch · OLJ'Marion GoochOL · JRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- OutLandon Strother · WRLandon StrotherWR · SOReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%0.0
- ProbableKerry Wilson · SKerry WilsonS · JRReport trail: Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-379%0.0
- ProbableMaxie Baudoin IV · DLMaxie Baudoin IVDL · SRReport trail: Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-379%0.0
- Out for seasonJahmir Davis · OLJahmir DavisOL · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- Out for seasonJeffery Rush Jr. · DLJeffery Rush Jr.DL · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- Out for seasonJordan Pride · DBJordan PrideDB · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- Out for seasonRicky Harding · LBRicky HardingLB · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- Out for seasonRobert Briggs · RBRobert BriggsRB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-30%−0.2
- OutAvery Sledge · LBAvery SledgeLB · SRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- OutEthan Hampton · QBEthan HamptonQB · SRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%0.0
- OutGrant Page · WRGrant PageWR · SRReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.2
- OutGreg Nunnery · OLGreg NunneryOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.4
- OutJaylen Himes · WRJaylen HimesWR · SOReport trail: Out, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.2
- OutLuke Rogers · OLLuke RogersOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, OutT-3 → T-30%−0.1
- QuestionableCaleb Triplett · LBCaleb TriplettLB · FRReport trail: Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-379%0.0
- ProbableJamarice Wilder · RBJamarice WilderRB · FRReport trail: Probable, not listedT-3 → T-3· OFF LATEST79%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
−11
−10
−9
−8
−7.4MODEL- SUN 5:12PTotal 53.5 → 52.5
- SUN 6:00PSpread −11.5 → −10.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
- SUN 6:12PSpread −11.5 → −10.5
- FRI 2:45ASpread −10.5 → −10 · 59% tickets ULSpread −10.5 → −10 · 59% on ULRLM
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread ULSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM | −11 | −10 | −7.4 |
Total | 52.5 | 52.5 | 51.7 |
Moneyline UL | −428 | −395 | −205 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
UL −10 · 59% / 33%USM +10 · 41% / 67%
Over · 100% / 100%Under · 0% / 0%
DraftKings bettors, as of 7:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 26-pt gap on USM suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
ESPN+CrewTBA
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Sunny
- 80°
- mph ENE · G17
- 10
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestUL 7d · USM 7d