Louisiana
5-25-2 · 2-1 Sun Belt · ATS 5-1-1
5:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+
M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg
WIN PROB
67%
UL
Southern Miss
1-51-5 · 0-2 Sun Belt · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- UL −10
- Open −11 · −110
- Total
- 52.5
- Open 52.5 · o −110
- Model line
- UL −7.4+2.6
- Model total 51.7
- Win probability
- 67%
- Projected score
- 29.5 – 22.2
- UL – USM
- Projected plays
- 135
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- UL −10
- open −11
- Model
- −7.4+2.6
- UL
- Total
- 52.5
- model 51.7
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Louisiana runvs Southern Miss run Dvs USM run DBIGGEST EDGE | 42nd+0.04 | 118th+0.07 | 42 | UL +7.2 |
  Southern Miss runvs Louisiana run Dvs UL run D | 100th−0.04 | 20th−0.08 | 29 | UL +5.1 |
| Southern Miss passvs Louisiana pass Dvs UL pass D | 96th−0.06 | 84th+0.03 | 38 | UL +1.8 |
PaceUL 31.1 s · USM 29.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 135 | O 1.4 |
| Louisiana passvs Southern Miss pass Dvs USM pass D | 81st−0.04 | 100th+0.06 | 25 | UL +0.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UL +7.2
Louisiana's run game vs the Southern Miss run defense
Louisiana gains +0.11 EPA a play on the run (42nd); Southern Miss allows +0.14 (118th). About 42 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseSouthern Miss
USM OFFWhen Southern Miss has the ball
DefenseLouisiana
UL DEF- 0.0098thEPA / play38th0.00
- 39.6%101stSuccess rate77th42.7%
- 1.2788thExplosiveness16th1.22
- +0.03100thRush EPA / play20th−0.01
- +0.0696thPass EPA / dropback84th+0.14
- 46.6%77thStandard downs SR69th47.2%
- 27.8%118thPassing downs SR95th32.2%
- 3.4830thLine yards44th2.89
- 11.9%39thHavoc rate69th14.4%
- 3.59114thPoints / opportunity62nd3.96
- +0.1062ndEarly-down EPA / play34th−0.04
- 29.5%133rd3rd-down conversion86th40.3%
- 12.6%27thStuff rate45th18.2%
- 3.2%30thSack rate124th3.0%
- 56%103rdRed zone TD rate89th65%
Louisiana's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (30th vs 124th).
OffenseLouisiana
UL OFFWhen Louisiana has the ball
DefenseSouthern Miss
USM DEF- +0.0287thEPA / play119th+0.16
- 40.1%92ndSuccess rate107th45.1%
- 1.25110thExplosiveness80th1.31
- +0.1142ndRush EPA / play118th+0.14
- +0.0881stPass EPA / dropback100th+0.17
- 45.5%94thStandard downs SR109th50.0%
- 31.0%71stPassing downs SR75th31.0%
- 3.3051stLine yards106th3.33
- 11.4%28thHavoc rate125th11.5%
- 4.8930thPoints / opportunity74th4.09
- +0.0483rdEarly-down EPA / play101st+0.08
- 42.3%57th3rd-down conversion110th43.0%
- 14.0%45thStuff rate112th13.5%
- 4.6%57thSack rate16th8.0%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate55th57%
Louisiana's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (28th vs 125th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ULUL | USMUSM | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.1 | 29.7 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.7 | 68.2 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 37.9% | 45.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −12.9% | −3.2% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 33.1% | 37.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 18% | 29% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 33:27 | 25:43 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.1 | Own 26.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%