Houston
10:15 PM ET
Fri, Nov 13 · ESPN
Folsom Field · Boulder
Colorado
- Spread
- HOU −9.5
- Open −10.5 · −110
- Total
- 51.5
- Open 49.5 · o −105
- Model line
- HOU −10.9
- Model total 53.9+1.4
- Win probability
- 75%
- Projected score
- 32.4–21.5
- HOU – COLO
- Projected plays
- 136
- FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
- Spread
- HOU −9.5
- open −10.5
- Model
- −10.9
- HOU+1.4
- Total
- 51.5
- model 53.9
- Win probability
- 75%
- HOU
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Houston pass | 4th+0.26 | 101st+0.07 | 31 | HOU +14.6 |
  Colorado run | 130th−0.13 | 52nd−0.03 | 35 | HOU +7.9 |
| Houston run | 27th+0.08 | 4th−0.15 | 37 | COLO +4.0 |
| Colorado pass | 52nd+0.03 | 84th+0.02 | 33 | COLO +2.4 |
Pace HOU 30.0 s · COLO 28.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays136 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 136 | O 2.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · HOU +14.6
Houston's passing game vs the Colorado pass defense
Houston gains +0.36 EPA a play on the pass (4th); Colorado allows +0.17 (101st). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseColorado
COLO OFFWhen Colorado has the ball
DefenseHouston
HOU DEF- −0.04110thEPA / play62nd+0.04
- 41.5%74thSuccess rate71st42.5%
- 1.24111thExplosiveness44th1.26
- −0.05130thRush EPA / play52nd+0.05
- +0.1352ndPass EPA / dropback84th+0.12
- 46.0%86thStandard downs SR70th47.6%
- 30.8%66thPassing downs SR98th32.0%
- 2.98107thLine yards68th3.14
- 15.3%104thHavoc rate18th17.3%
- 3.74104thPoints / opportunity131st5.05
- 64%63rdRed zone TD rate132nd78%
Houston's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (104th vs 18th).
OffenseHouston
HOU OFFWhen Houston has the ball
DefenseColorado
COLO DEF- +0.248thEPA / play44th0.00
- 51.2%1stSuccess rate31st39.3%
- 1.24112thExplosiveness88th1.32
- +0.1527thRush EPA / play4th−0.08
- +0.364thPass EPA / dropback101st+0.17
- 53.9%4thStandard downs SR32nd44.5%
- 37.5%3rdPassing downs SR66th30.6%
- 3.5715thLine yards19th2.77
- 9.6%6thHavoc rate10th18.6%
- 4.4658thPoints / opportunity51st3.84
- 66%51stRed zone TD rate16th47%
Houston's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (4th vs 101st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | HOUHOU | COLOCOLO | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 30.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 68.2 | 68.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 47.4% | 38.8% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.2% | −10.7% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.1% | 36.0% | 44.7% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 26% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:21 | 28:34 | 30:07 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.7 | Own 25.2 | Own 29.7 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo