8-2 · 5-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-5

North Dakota State

8-2

21 – 13

FinalCW

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu

3-7 · 2-5 Mountain West · ATS 4-5

Hawai'i

3-7

Spread: NDSU −8.5; Open −7.5
Total: 39.5; Open 40
Model line: NDSU −11.6; Model total 46.0+3.1
Win probability: 76%
Projected score: 28.8–17.2; NDSU – HAW
Projected plays: 135; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: NDSU −8.5; open −7.5
Model: −11.6; NDSU+3.1
Total: 39.5; model 46.0
Win probability: 76%; NDSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Hawai'i pass vs North Dakota State pass Dvs NDSU pass DBiggest edge	84th−0.04	1st−0.22	44	NDSU +16.4
Hawai'i run vs North Dakota State run Dvs NDSU run D	120th−0.08	13th−0.10	24	NDSU +6.3
North Dakota State run vs Hawai'i run Dvs HAW run D	121st−0.09	84th+0.03	39	HAW +3.1
North Dakota State pass vs Hawai'i pass Dvs HAW pass D	89th−0.05	121st+0.11	29	NDSU +2.5
Pace NDSU 27.5 s · HAW 27.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	135	O 1.2

BIGGEST EDGE · NDSU +16.4

The North Dakota State pass defense vs Hawai'i's passing game

Hawai'i gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (84th); North Dakota State allows −0.13 (1st). About 44 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseHawai'i

HAW OFF

When Hawai'i has the ball

DefenseNorth Dakota State

NDSU DEF

−0.03106thEPA / play6th−0.14
40.1%92ndSuccess rate25th38.4%
1.25102ndExplosiveness3rd1.18
−0.01120thRush EPA / play13th−0.03
+0.0684thPass EPA / dropback1st−0.13
47.0%65thStandard downs SR48th46.0%
28.8%108thPassing downs SR3rd25.1%
3.0795thLine yards61st3.08
16.3%120thHavoc rate12th17.8%
3.51122ndPoints / opportunity4th2.65
45%131stRed zone TD rate14th47%

North Dakota State's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (122nd vs 4th).

OffenseNorth Dakota State

NDSU OFF

When North Dakota State has the ball

DefenseHawai'i

HAW DEF

−0.03105thEPA / play115th+0.14
38.7%110thSuccess rate115th45.8%
1.3440thExplosiveness49th1.27
−0.01121stRush EPA / play84th+0.10
+0.0589thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.21
43.4%118thStandard downs SR116th50.5%
30.5%71stPassing downs SR84th31.3%
3.1188thLine yards96th3.27
13.3%60thHavoc rate97th13.0%
4.6736thPoints / opportunity91st4.26
71%25thRed zone TD rate119th72%

North Dakota State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (25th vs 119th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	NDSUNDSU	HAWHAW	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.5	27.0	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	64.3	70.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	44.6%	63.2%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−10.1%	+15.3%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	40.6%	59.6%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	28%	20%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	33:44	—	30:03
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.5	Own 26.8	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%