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SAT 11:00 · CW · HONOLULU
8-2 · 5-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-5

North Dakota State

8-2
21 – 13

FinalCW

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu

3-7 · 2-5 Mountain West · ATS 4-5

Hawai'i

3-7
Spread
NDSU −8.5
Open −7.5
Total
39.5
Open 40
Model line
NDSU −11.6
Model total 46.0+3.1
Win probability
76%
Projected score
28.8–17.2
NDSU – HAW
Projected plays
135
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
Spread
NDSU −8.5
open −7.5
Model
−11.6
NDSU+3.1
Total
39.5
model 46.0
Win probability
76%
NDSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Hawai'i pass
Biggest edge
84th−0.041st−0.2244NDSU +16.4
Hawai'i run
120th−0.0813th−0.1024NDSU +6.3
North Dakota State run
121st−0.0984th+0.0339HAW +3.1
North Dakota State pass
89th−0.05121st+0.1129NDSU +2.5
Pace
NDSU 27.5 s · HAW 27.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg
——135O 1.2

BIGGEST EDGE · NDSU +16.4

The North Dakota State pass defense vs Hawai'i's passing game

Hawai'i gains +0.06 EPA a play on the pass (84th); North Dakota State allows −0.13 (1st). About 44 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseHawai'i
HAW OFF

When Hawai'i has the ball

DefenseNorth Dakota State
NDSU DEF
  • −0.03106thEPA / play6th−0.14
  • 40.1%92ndSuccess rate25th38.4%
  • 1.25102ndExplosiveness3rd1.18
  • −0.01120thRush EPA / play13th−0.03
  • +0.0684thPass EPA / dropback1st−0.13
  • 47.0%65thStandard downs SR48th46.0%
  • 28.8%108thPassing downs SR3rd25.1%
  • 3.0795thLine yards61st3.08
  • 16.3%120thHavoc rate12th17.8%
  • 3.51122ndPoints / opportunity4th2.65
  • 45%131stRed zone TD rate14th47%

North Dakota State's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (122nd vs 4th).

OffenseNorth Dakota State
NDSU OFF

When North Dakota State has the ball

DefenseHawai'i
HAW DEF
  • −0.03105thEPA / play115th+0.14
  • 38.7%110thSuccess rate115th45.8%
  • 1.3440thExplosiveness49th1.27
  • −0.01121stRush EPA / play84th+0.10
  • +0.0589thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.21
  • 43.4%118thStandard downs SR116th50.5%
  • 30.5%71stPassing downs SR84th31.3%
  • 3.1188thLine yards96th3.27
  • 13.3%60thHavoc rate97th13.0%
  • 4.6736thPoints / opportunity91st4.26
  • 71%25thRed zone TD rate119th72%

North Dakota State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (25th vs 119th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
MetricNDSUNDSUHAWHAWFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral27.527.028.7
Plays per gamePlays per game64.370.765.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral44.6%63.2%48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−10.1%+15.3%−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral40.6%59.6%44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations28%20%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession33:44—30:03
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.5Own 26.8Own 29.7
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo

Injury report

MW AVAILABILITY · SAT 7:04 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

North Dakota State

% TO PLAYIMPACT

Hawai'i

% TO PLAYIMPACT