Standings

10 teams · 8 conf games

Mountain West

10 teams · 8 conf games · Through wk 8

Title favorite

43%

New Mexico

Cutline

6-2

in 51% of sims

Title game

Dec 4

FOX

Title favorite

43%New Mexico

Likeliest title game

41%New Mexico vs North Dakota State

Cutline

6-2gets in 51% of sims

Tiebreaker needed

27%Tie at the cut

Standings

Odds from 10K sims · Tiebreakers applied

Mountain West standings
Seed	Team	Conference record	Tiebreaker that set the place	Overall record	Net EPA per playNet EPA per play and FBS rank	Net EPA rank (FBS)	havoc rating	Strength of schedule left (rank)	Projected conference record	Title game odds	Conference title odds	Playoff odds	Playoff outlook now	Playoff outlook in the sims
1	New Mexico, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0		5-1	+0.1719	19	+6.8	104	6.4–1.6	66%	43%CFP27%	27%	needs title	long shot
2	Wyoming, now needs title, sims out	4-1		5-3	−0.14113	113	−7.8	88	5.2–2.8	18%	4%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
Title game line						Title game line						Title game line			Title game line	Title game line
3	North Dakota State, now needs title, sims long shot	3-1		6-1	+0.1331	31	+3.6	137	6.8–2.3	69%	34%CFP17%	17%	needs title	long shot
4	UNLV, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	RTG	4-3	+0.0163	63	+1.1	122	5.4–2.6	30%	12%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
5	San José State, now needs title, sims out	2-1	RTG	4-3	−0.17120	120	−9.1	76	4.2–4.8	5%	1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
6	Air Force, now needs title, sims long shot	3-2		5-2	+0.0066	66	−1.4	97	4.9–3.1	11%	4%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
7	Nevada, now needs title, sims out	1-2		2-4	−0.12102	102	−7.3	80	3.4–4.6	1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
8	Hawai'i, now out, sims out	0-4	RTG	1-6	−0.22130	130	−10.7	133	1.8–6.2	0%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out
9	Northern Illinois, now out, sims out	0-2	RTG	0-6	−0.30135	135	−17.0	116	1.8–6.2	<1%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out
10	UTEP, now out, sims out	0-3	RTG	1-6	−0.36137	137	−19.3	120	1.2–6.8	0%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out

10 of 10

Playoff outlook

lock≥95likely≥70bubble≥30long shot>0

Sims: CFP % of 10K sims

Sims

lock≥95%likely≥70%bubble≥30%long shot>0%outnever in the field · CFP % of 10K sims, 12-team format

Title game matchups

Dec 4 · FOX

New Mexico – North Dakota State41%

North Dakota State – UNLV13%

New Mexico – UNLV13%

North Dakota State – Wyoming8%

18 other pairings26%

Leverage this week

CCG odds · win / loseCCG if win / lose

North Dakota State at New MexicoNDSU 92% / 55% · SAT 10:00 CW

±37

San José State at NevadaSJSU 9% / 2% · SAT 5:00 MW+

±7

Hawai'i at Northern IllinoisNIU <1% / 0% · SAT 3:30 MW+

±0

Tiebreak order

Mountain West 2026 (havoc sims-s2)

H2HHead-to-head among the tied teams (3+ teams: combined record when all have met, else a team that beat or lost to all the others)

RTGhavoc rating (stands in for the conference's analytics / ranking step)

WINSOverall win %

Show all 6 rules

COMRecord vs common opponents from the top of the standings down (tied opponents as a group)

COMRecord vs common conference opponents

RANDDraw / coin toss (the table falls back to school name)

Steps in order; once a step separates a team, the rest start again at step 1. Approximations: common opponents from the top are ordered by conference win %, not tiebroken place; the havoc rating stands in for every analytics / ranking step. rtg stands in for the CFP ranking / average-of-metrics step; com_top approximates the record vs the next-highest team (common opponents only); one-FCS-win cap not applied.