Standings

14 teams · 8 conf games

American

14 teams · 8 conf games · Through wk 8

Title favorite

46%

North Texas

Cutline

6-2

in 50% of sims

Title game

Dec 5

ABC

Title favorite

46%North Texas

Likeliest title game

25%North Texas vs Memphis

Cutline

6-2gets in 50% of sims

Tiebreaker needed

54%Tie at the cut

Standings

Odds from 10K sims · Tiebreakers applied

American standings
Seed	Team	Conference record	Tiebreaker that set the place	Overall record	Net EPA per playNet EPA per play and FBS rank	Net EPA rank (FBS)	havoc rating	Strength of schedule left (rank)	Projected conference record	Title game odds	Conference title odds	Playoff odds	Playoff outlook now	Playoff outlook in the sims
1	North Texas, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0	RTG	4-2	+0.1334	34	+6.3	102	6.4–1.6	73%	46%CFP8%	8%	needs title	long shot
2	UTSA, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	RTG	6-1	−0.0482	82	−0.5	76	5.5–2.5	31%	12%CFP2%	2%	needs title	long shot
Title game line						Title game line						Title game line			Title game line	Title game line
3	Army, now needs title, sims long shot	4-1		5-2	−0.0171	71	+0.4	77	5.7–2.3	33%	13%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
4	Memphis, now needs title, sims long shot	3-1		6-2	+0.0552	52	+3.9	74	5.5–2.5	38%	19%CFP3%	3%	needs title	long shot
5	UAB, now needs title, sims out	2-1		4-3	−0.13107	107	−6.9	91	4.0–4.0	2%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
6	Tulane, now needs title, sims out	1-1	RTG	3-3	−0.0893	93	−1.9	97	4.2–3.8	8%	3%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
7	Florida Atlantic, now needs title, sims long shot	1-1	RTG	4-2	−0.0380	80	−2.8	59	3.7–4.3	3%	1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
8	South Florida, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	RTG	5-2	−0.0168	68	+2.7	79	4.0–4.0	7%	3%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
9	East Carolina, now needs title, sims out	1-2	RTG	3-4	−0.0483	83	−0.6	103	4.0–4.0	3%	1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
10	Charlotte, now out, sims out	1-2	H2H	1-6	−0.30136	136	−16.9	83	2.0–6.0	0%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out
11	Temple, now needs title, sims out	1-2	H2H	2-5	−0.14115	115	−7.3	89	3.0–5.0	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
12	Navy, now needs title, sims out	1-3	H2H	2-4	−0.0278	78	+0.3	65	3.4–4.6	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
13	Tulsa, now needs title, sims out	1-3	H2H	4-4	+0.0454	54	−0.8	111	3.4–4.6	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
14	Rice, now out, sims out	0-3		1-6	−0.21126	126	−11.8	70	1.3–6.7	0%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out

Odds from 10K sims

Playoff outlook

lock≥95likely≥70bubble≥30long shot>0

Sims: CFP % of 10K sims

Sims

lock≥95%likely≥70%bubble≥30%long shot>0%outnever in the field · CFP % of 10K sims, 12-team format

Title game matchups

Dec 5 · ABC

North Texas – Memphis25%

North Texas – Army21%

North Texas – UTSA15%

Memphis – UTSA7%

52 other pairings33%

Leverage this week

CCG odds · win / loseCCG if win / lose

UTSA at TulaneUTSA 47% / 16% · SAT 8:00 ESPNU

±31

North Texas at NavyUNT 83% / 57% · SAT 3:30 CBSSN

±26

Rice at Florida AtlanticFAU 4% / <1% · SAT 12:00 ESPNU

±3

Tiebreak order

American 2026 (havoc sims-s2)

H2HHead-to-head among the tied teams (3+ teams: combined record when all have met, else a team that beat or lost to all the others)

RTGhavoc rating (stands in for the conference's analytics / ranking step)

COMRecord vs common conference opponents

Show all 5 rules

WINSOverall win %

RANDDraw / coin toss (the table falls back to school name)

Steps in order; once a step separates a team, the rest start again at step 1. Approximations: common opponents from the top are ordered by conference win %, not tiebroken place; the havoc rating stands in for every analytics / ranking step. rtg stands in for the CFP ranking / composite-metrics step (ranked teams that lost the final weekend, unranked teams); wins = overall win % without exempt games.