Standings

68 teams

CFP field

68 teams · Through wk 8

Field

5 auto bids · 4 byes

Last in

53%

Alabama

First out

44%

Liberty

Playoff field

125 auto bids · 4 byes

Likeliest bye

71%Notre Dame

Last in

53%Alabama

First out

44%Liberty

Standings

Odds from 10K sims · By CFP odds

CFP field by playoff odds
Seed	Team	Conference record	Overall record	Net EPA per playNet EPA per play and FBS rank	Net EPA rank (FBS)	havoc rating	Strength of schedule left (rank)	Projected conference record	Title game odds	Conference title odds	Playoff odds	Playoff outlook now	Playoff outlook in the sims
1	Notre Dame, AP 4, now in, sims lock	0-0	6-1	+0.391	1	+22.3	48	0.0–0.0	0%	0%CFP97%	97%	in	lock
2	Miami, AP 1, now lock, sims likely	4-0	6-0	+0.325	5	+18.6	38	8.3–0.7	96%	64%CFP93%	93%	lock	likely
3	Ohio State, AP 3, now in, sims likely	4-0	6-1	+0.352	2	+21.2	8	7.9–1.1	79%	55%CFP88%	88%	in	likely
4	BYU, AP 2, now lock, sims likely	3-0	6-0	+0.324	4	+16.5	47	7.6–1.4	65%	39%CFP85%	85%	lock	likely
5	Indiana, AP 6, now in, sims likely	3-1	6-1	+0.279	9	+16.7	57	7.0–2.0	35%	17%CFP75%	75%	in	likely
6	Georgia, AP 5, now in, sims bubble	4-1	6-1	+0.317	7	+17.1	29	6.8–2.3	52%	31%CFP68%	68%	in	bubble
7	Texas Tech, AP 8, now lock, sims bubble	3-0	6-0	+0.1721	21	+13.0	49	7.4–1.6	54%	25%CFP67%	67%	lock	bubble
8	Wake Forest, AP 17, now in, sims bubble	4-1	6-1	+0.298	8	+13.5	85	7.1–1.9	62%	25%CFP62%	62%	in	bubble
9	UCLA, AP 9, now lock, sims bubble	4-0	6-0	+0.2710	10	+11.1	62	7.6–1.4	52%	16%CFP61%	61%	lock	bubble
10	Utah, AP 10, now lock, sims bubble	3-0	6-0	+0.2313	13	+13.3	30	6.9–2.1	39%	19%CFP57%	57%	lock	bubble
11	James Madison, now needs title, sims bubble	4-1	7-1	+0.1332	32	+8.6	112	6.6–1.4	79%	57%CFP54%	54%	needs title	bubble
12	Alabama, AP 13, now bubble, sims bubble	3-2	5-2	+0.316	6	+17.9	17	5.9–3.1	22%	13%CFP53%	53%	bubble	bubble
Field line					Field line						Field line			Field line	Field line
13	Liberty, now needs title, sims bubble	3-0	6-1	+0.1818	18	+6.7	122	7.0–1.0	92%	69%CFP44%	44%	needs title	bubble
14	Houston, AP 14, now in, sims bubble	3-1	6-1	+0.2512	12	+11.4	64	6.5–2.5	23%	10%CFP36%	36%	in	bubble
15	LSU, AP 18, now bubble, sims bubble	2-2	5-2	+0.343	3	+16.8	10	5.5–3.5	17%	10%CFP34%	34%	bubble	bubble
16	Ole Miss, AP 7, now in, sims long shot	3-1	5-1	+0.2014	14	+12.6	42	6.0–3.0	32%	16%CFP28%	28%	in	long shot
17	Tennessee, AP 11, now in, sims long shot	3-1	6-1	+0.1916	16	+11.5	26	6.1–2.9	31%	13%CFP27%	27%	in	long shot
18	New Mexico, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0	5-1	+0.1720	20	+6.6	104	6.4–1.6	65%	41%CFP25%	25%	needs title	long shot
19	Boise State, AP 21, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0	5-1	+0.1431	31	+7.5	87	5.8–1.2	85%	50%CFP23%	23%	needs title	long shot
20	North Dakota State, now needs title, sims long shot	3-1	6-1	+0.1429	29	+3.8	137	6.8–2.2	70%	35%CFP17%	17%	needs title	long shot
21	Arizona, AP 25, now in, sims long shot	2-1	5-1	+0.1817	17	+10.0	25	5.7–3.3	14%	5%CFP15%	15%	in	long shot
22	Nebraska, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	5-2	+0.2611	11	+11.9	40	5.2–3.8	<1%	<1%CFP10%	10%	bubble	long shot
23	Iowa, AP 15, now in, sims long shot	2-1	5-1	+0.1333	33	+7.8	39	5.6–3.4	7%	2%CFP9%	9%	in	long shot
24	USC, AP 16, now in, sims long shot	3-1	6-1	+0.1430	30	+9.5	1	5.3–3.7	7%	2%CFP8%	8%	in	long shot
25	Northwestern, AP 24, now in, sims long shot	2-1	5-1	+0.2015	15	+8.6	23	5.5–3.5	4%	2%CFP8%	8%	in	long shot
26	North Texas, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0	4-2	+0.1334	34	+6.3	102	6.4–1.6	73%	46%CFP8%	8%	needs title	long shot
27	Oregon, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	+0.1428	28	+11.3	22	5.8–3.2	11%	5%CFP6%	6%	bubble	long shot
28	SMU, AP 23, now in, sims long shot	3-1	5-1	+0.1035	35	+6.5	37	6.4–2.6	26%	7%CFP6%	6%	in	long shot
29	Missouri, AP 22, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	5-2	+0.1723	23	+9.8	24	4.9–4.1	8%	4%CFP5%	5%	bubble	long shot
30	Texas, AP 19, now bubble, sims long shot	1-2	4-2	+0.1719	19	+11.2	21	4.4–4.6	4%	2%CFP4%	4%	bubble	long shot
31	Kentucky, AP 12, now in, sims long shot	4-1	6-1	+0.1037	37	+5.3	5	5.8–3.2	18%	5%CFP3%	3%	in	long shot
32	Toledo, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	5-2	+0.0261	61	+2.6	133	5.7–2.3	46%	29%CFP3%	3%	needs title	long shot
33	Florida, AP 20, now bubble, sims long shot	3-2	5-2	+0.1426	26	+8.5	32	5.3–3.8	11%	4%CFP3%	3%	bubble	long shot
34	Oregon State, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	5-2	+0.1722	22	+5.8	67	5.5–1.5	78%	39%CFP3%	3%	needs title	long shot
35	Memphis, now needs title, sims long shot	3-1	6-2	+0.0552	52	+3.9	74	5.5–2.5	38%	19%CFP3%	3%	needs title	long shot
36	UTSA, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	6-1	−0.0482	82	−0.5	76	5.5–2.5	31%	12%CFP2%	2%	needs title	long shot
37	Mississippi State, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	4-2	+0.1427	27	+6.9	19	4.5–4.5	2%	<1%CFP1%	1%	bubble	long shot
38	Louisville, now needs title, sims long shot	3-2	4-3	+0.1524	24	+8.8	68	5.8–3.2	5%	2%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
39	Wisconsin, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	+0.1525	25	+5.3	72	5.6–3.4	3%	1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
40	South Florida, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	5-2	−0.0168	68	+2.7	79	4.0–4.0	7%	3%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
41	Louisiana Tech, now needs title, sims long shot	2-0	4-2	+0.0743	43	+0.8	109	5.9–2.1	59%	22%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
42	Pittsburgh, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	5-2	+0.1039	39	+6.3	63	4.7–4.3	2%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
43	Western Michigan, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	5-2	−0.0276	76	−0.6	135	6.4–1.6	67%	34%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
44	Auburn, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	4-2	+0.1038	38	+6.8	45	4.0–5.0	2%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
45	Louisiana, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	5-2	+0.0258	58	−0.3	126	5.3–2.6	23%	7%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
46	Air Force, now needs title, sims long shot	3-2	5-2	+0.0650	50	+0.7	101	5.0–3.0	15%	6%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
47	Jacksonville State, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	5-2	−0.0481	81	−2.5	130	6.1–1.9	67%	20%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
48	App State, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	5-2	−0.0175	75	−1.9	117	5.0–3.0	15%	7%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
49	North Carolina, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	+0.0942	42	+2.5	33	4.4–3.6	3%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
50	Baylor, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	+0.0745	45	+5.0	9	4.5–4.5	2%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
51	Army, now needs title, sims long shot	4-1	5-2	−0.0171	71	+0.4	77	5.7–2.3	33%	13%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
52	Michigan, now bubble, sims long shot	1-2	4-2	+0.1036	36	+6.0	18	3.6–5.3	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
53	Oklahoma State, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	+0.1040	40	+1.7	51	4.8–4.2	2%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
54	Ohio, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	5-2	−0.0787	87	−2.3	125	6.3–1.7	51%	24%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
55	UNLV, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	4-3	+0.0259	59	+1.4	123	5.5–2.5	30%	13%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
56	Clemson, now bubble, sims long shot	2-1	4-2	−0.0277	77	+2.1	61	4.6–3.4	3%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
57	TCU, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	3-3	+0.0941	41	+6.2	14	4.1–4.9	1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
58	Kansas State, now bubble, sims long shot	1-2	4-2	+0.0356	56	+3.3	43	3.9–5.1	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
59	Virginia Tech, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	5-2	+0.0647	47	+2.3	46	4.3–4.7	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
60	Duke, now bubble, sims long shot	2-2	5-2	+0.0651	51	+2.9	31	4.2–4.8	1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
61	Georgia State, now needs title, sims long shot	1-1	4-2	−0.0170	70	−2.6	94	4.2–3.8	2%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
62	Oklahoma, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	3-3	+0.0455	55	+4.7	15	3.5–5.5	1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
63	Cincinnati, now bubble, sims long shot	1-2	4-2	+0.0066	66	+1.4	13	2.9–6.1	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	bubble	long shot
64	Texas A&M, now needs title, sims long shot	1-3	4-3	+0.0262	62	+6.1	16	3.0–6.0	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
65	UCF, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	3-3	+0.0746	46	+3.2	60	4.1–4.9	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
66	Florida Atlantic, now needs title, sims long shot	1-1	4-2	−0.0380	80	−2.8	59	3.7–4.3	3%	1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
67	Fresno State, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	4-3	−0.0174	74	−0.7	86	3.1–3.9	6%	2%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
68	Iowa State, now needs title, sims long shot	1-2	3-3	−0.0067	67	+1.9	55	3.7–5.3	<1%	<1%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot

Odds from 10K sims

Playoff outlook

lock≥95likely≥70bubble≥30long shot>0

Sims: CFP % of 10K sims

Sims

lock≥95%likely≥70%bubble≥30%long shot>0%outnever in the field · CFP % of 10K sims, 12-team format