Standings

13 teams · 8 conf games

MAC

13 teams · 8 conf games · Top 2 to Detroit · Through wk 8

Title favorite

34%

Western Michigan

Cutline

6-2

in 43% of sims

Title game

Dec 5

Detroit · ESPN

Title favorite

34%Western Michigan

Likeliest title game

30%Western Michigan vs Ohio

Cutline

6-2gets in 43% of sims

Tiebreaker needed

49%Tie at the cut

Standings

Odds from 10K sims · Tiebreakers applied

MAC standings
Seed	Team	Conference record	Tiebreaker that set the place	Overall record	Net EPA per playNet EPA per play and FBS rank	Net EPA rank (FBS)	havoc rating	Strength of schedule left (rank)	Projected conference record	Title game odds	Conference title odds	Playoff odds	Playoff outlook now	Playoff outlook in the sims
1	Western Michigan, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	OPP%	5-2	−0.0276	76	−0.6	135	6.4–1.6	67%	34%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
2	Ohio, now needs title, sims long shot	3-0	OPP%	5-2	−0.0787	87	−2.3	125	6.3–1.7	51%	24%CFP<1%	<1%	needs title	long shot
Title game line						Title game line						Title game line			Title game line	Title game line
3	Eastern Michigan, now needs title, sims out	3-1		4-4	−0.27133	133	−14.8	128	4.2–3.8	3%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
4	Toledo, now needs title, sims long shot	2-1	OPP%	5-2	+0.0261	61	+2.6	133	5.7–2.3	46%	29%CFP3%	3%	needs title	long shot
5	Miami (OH), now needs title, sims out	2-1	OPP%	4-3	−0.0585	85	−3.5	119	4.8–3.1	20%	9%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
6	Buffalo, now needs title, sims out	2-1	OPP%	4-3	−0.21128	128	−10.9	132	4.5–3.5	8%	2%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
7	Bowling Green, now needs title, sims out	2-1	OPP%	2-5	−0.24131	131	−12.8	100	3.7–4.3	3%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
8	Central Michigan, now needs title, sims out	1-2	RTG	3-4	−0.20124	124	−9.8	138	3.8–4.2	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
9	Kent State, now needs title, sims out	1-2	RTG	2-5	−0.19122	122	−12.4	136	3.6–4.4	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
10	Ball State, now needs title, sims out	1-2	OPP%	2-5	−0.20125	125	−12.8	127	3.3–4.7	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
11	Massachusetts, now needs title, sims out	1-3		4-4	−0.0584	84	−7.0	131	3.3–4.7	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
12	Akron, now needs title, sims out	0-3	OPP%	1-6	−0.28134	134	−16.1	106	1.5–6.5	<1%	<1%CFP0%	0%	needs title	out
13	Sacramento State, now out, sims out	0-4	OPP%	1-6	−0.40138	138	−21.2	129	0.9–7.1	0%	0%CFP0%	0%	out	out

Odds from 10K sims

Playoff outlook

lock≥95likely≥70bubble≥30long shot>0

Sims: CFP % of 10K sims

Sims

lock≥95%likely≥70%bubble≥30%long shot>0%outnever in the field · CFP % of 10K sims, 12-team format

Detroit matchups

Dec 5 · ESPN

Western Michigan – Ohio30%

Western Michigan – Toledo23%

Toledo – Ohio13%

Western Michigan – Miami (OH)8%

36 other pairings28%

Leverage this week

CCG odds · win / loseCCG if win / lose

Western Michigan at ToledoTOL 62% / 18% · SAT 12:00 CBSSN

±45

Eastern Michigan at OhioOHIO 57% / 23% · SAT 4:00 ESPNU

±33

Miami (OH) at Central MichiganM-OH 27% / 8% · SAT 1:00 ESPN+

±19

Tiebreak order

MAC 2026 (havoc sims-s2)

H2HHead-to-head among the tied teams (3+ teams: combined record when all have met, else a team that beat or lost to all the others)

COMRecord vs common conference opponents

COMRecord vs common opponents from the top of the standings down (tied opponents as a group)

Show all 6 rules

OPP%Combined conference win % of all conference opponents

RTGhavoc rating (stands in for the conference's analytics / ranking step)

RANDDraw / coin toss (the table falls back to school name)

Steps in order; once a step separates a team, the rest start again at step 1. Approximations: common opponents from the top are ordered by conference win %, not tiebroken place; the havoc rating stands in for every analytics / ranking step. rtg stands in for the SportSource Team Rating Score.